Yi Jianlian

Going into the draft the biggest question mark is Yi Jianlian. Late Wednesday night, ESPN began reporting that the Atlanta Hawks are 50/50 on Yi and Florida Forward Al Horford. For weeks it has seemed obvious that the Hawks would select Horford at #3, but this new report throws a wrench into just about every mock draft. Personally I don't think they will ultimately take Yi, but it is really something to consider, especially since Billy Knight has a history of screwing up high lottery picks.

After #3, Yi's next potential destination is at #5 to the Boston Celtics. The Celtics are very high on him and would love to add him to the team, but there are some pretty major concerns. First of all, drafting Yi, likely a project player, would send the message to Paul Pierce that they are not focused on contending in the Eastern Conference for the next few years and are still in "rebuilding mode" whereas a pick of Jeff Green or Joakim Noah would show more of an eye to the immediate future. Pierce has said that he could demand a trade as early as draft night if he is not satisfied with the Celtics, and drafting Yi would almost force Pierce out the door. Any trades for this pick are very unlikely.

If Yi falls past there, the Milwaukee Bucks are giving off a lot of signs that they will draft him at #6. Yi and his "handlers" do not want him in Milwaukee, but the Bucks have stated that they will draft him and force him to play in a city he does not like. This is the perfect example of a "smoke screen"; the Bucks know that Chicago and Golden State are very interested in Yi and want to force them to trade for the #6 pick. That way the Bucks can get a lower pick, like Golden State's #18, and another player, perhaps Monta Ellis. The Bucks will not draft Yi if they cannot trade him away immediately.

Barring trades for the #7 and #8 picks, the Chicago Bulls at #9 are the lowest Yi falls. Unless Joakim Noah is still around, then the Bulls could take him. If the Bulls pass on Yi, Sacramento will be the absolute basement on Jianlian's stock. If he slides out of the top 10 (which he really should not, he is probably going at 3 or 5), he could pass the next seven teams and go to
Golden State at #18, or to a team trading up.

Where Yi goes determines a lot of what goes on in this draft. For example, if the Hawks take Yi, it gives Memphis a major decision to make between Conley and Horford at #4. They are locked in on Conley right now because they assume Horford will be off the board, but if Yi goes #3, they have both to choose from. Horford could slide to #6 to the Bucks, which would slide Brandan Wright (who I feel the Bucks are eyeing at #6) down the draft board quite a bit. If Yi slides, guys like Jeff Green and Joakim Noah will be the main beneficiaries, with Green going as high as #5 to the Celtics. If Yi goes #5, Green is probably more in the 8-10 range, with an outside shot at Milwaukee for #6.

The only thing we know right now is that Yi Jianlian holds the key to the lottery this year.